Problem Set Due 4 00 Pm 1 22 2019 Busi 403 Spring 2019 Notes 1 Problems Require Use Spread Q34344855

excel spreadsheet:

MonthSales (in millions of boxes)113062130531311413135132461329713468134791378101394111441121469Problem Set A Due: 4:00 pm, 1/22/2019 BUSI 403 Spring 2019 Notes: 1. All problems require the use of a spreadsheet application like Excel. The relevant Excel Refresher session will be conducted on Jan 16th at 5:00pm. A spreadsheet containing data for problems is available on the course website. All the data sets in this homework are fictitious. Display your answers to two decimal places, but carry the full value in the calculations, i.e., do not round the numbers for calculations. 2. 3. Problem 1 Zephyr is a manufacturer of paper towels, napkins and toilet paper. The manager of Zephyr factory in South Carolina needs your help as a forecast analyst. The manager has collected the following sales data for their Select-A-Size Paper Towel packs in the past 12 months (Note that month 1 refers to sales made 12 months ago. Month 12 refers to sales made last month) Month Sales (in millions of packs) 1306 1305 1311 1313 1324 1329 1346 1347 1378 1394 1441 1469 4 6 9 10 12 First you want to see how a simple moving average would perform. Compute simple 3-month moving average forecasts of sales for months 4 to 13. Compute the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD ad the Mean Square Error (MSE) of the forecasts for months 4 to 12. a. b. Then using a 3-month weighted moving average method with weights of 0.7, 0.2, 0.1 (most recent, next most recent, and third most recent week, respectively), compute the sales forecast for months 4 to 13. Again, compute the MAD and MSE of the forecasts for months 4 to 12 with the weighted moving average method Using MAD as a measure, compare the performance of two methods (simple moving average vs weighted moving average). Which one is better? Then compare the performance of two methods using MSE as a measure. Which one is better? Based on this analysis, if you have to recommend one of these methods, which one would you choose? Explain your answer c. Show transcribed image text